Surely post-industrial regions will fare far worse than their richer, Southern counterparts in the event of a No Deal Brexit right? Plimsoll, the UK’s leading provider of individual market studies, has pulled together analysis from their 1600 different market studies and thinks the reality could be quite different.
Plimsoll produces individual studies on every company in each of the UK’s main markets. Using the proven Plimsoll Model, a graphical and written tool that rates every company as Strong, Good, Mediocre, Caution or Danger, we have highlighted which regions have the highest percentage of companies in financial trouble.
9 out of 10 previously failed businesses were rated as Danger, 2 years prior to their demise – our ratings are a proven predictor of company failure
So heading into the most disruptive and potentially dangerous period (depending on your political leanings) in decades, the City of London has the highest percentage of financially vulnerable companies. When Oxfordshire and Berkshire are included, 3 of the top 10 riskiest parts of the UK are in the prosperous South East. Are the regions higher costs really beginning to bite?
Highest risk regions
| County |
% of companies rated as Danger |
| City of London |
28% |
| Cumbria |
26% |
| Oxfordshire |
26% |
| Scotland |
25% |
| Cornwall |
25% |
| Berkshire |
25% |
| Devon |
25% |
| Dorset |
25% |
| Lincolnshire |
24% |
| Northumberland |
24% |
Elsewhere, the Midlands, with its central location, good transport links, and relatively low costs seems to be the least risky areas to operate in. With 4 of the top 10 regions more or less in the Midlands, it is easy to see why companies are increasingly attracted to the area.
Lowest risk regions
| County |
% of companies rated as Danger |
| Staffordshire |
20% |
| Essex |
20% |
| Northern Ireland |
20% |
| West Midlands |
20% |
| Bristol |
21% |
| Warwickshire |
21% |
| Bedfordshire |
21% |
| West Yorkshire |
21% |
| Worcestershire |
21% |
| Somerset |
21% |
Companies rated as Danger by Plimsoll are not guaranteed to fail. However, they are extremely vulnerable to disruption in their respective markets. If companies are heading into the fog of Brexit already in trouble anything but the smoothest transition could be enough to tip many over the edge – and that problem is most profoundly concentrated in the South East.
Of course, these ratings are influenced by the makeup of the local economy and its predominant sectors. With its heavy proportion of financial and tech services, the South East regions may be more resilient than say manufacturing in the North in the 20th Century – but there are no guarantees and the relative strength of those types of industries are their portability.
Plimsoll produces over 1600 industry-specific studies. In each study, the leading companies are valued, assessed on their financial health and rated for takeover potential. In summation, each industry analysis includes a comprehensive market overview that alerts you to the latest trends, the areas of opportunity and other key intelligence to help you make better decisions.
Please visit www.plimsoll.co.uk to see what Plimsoll is saying about the industries that matter to you.